Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets: Week 12 | Fantasy News

2022-08-12 23:22:45 By : Ms. vicky zhang

Don't have an account? Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Already have an account? Log In

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.

The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.

Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.

The shortstop is batting .217 with a .257 on-base percentage, seven home runs, and three stolen bases in 240 plate appearances this season. At face value that’s certainly not ideal, but the All-Star shortstop is heating up at the right time for the Tigers.

Since June 5, Baez is batting .278 with a .321 on-base percentage, four home runs, 10 total extra-base hits, and three stolen bases in 78 plate appearances with an ISO (.264) that’s approaching his BABIP (.291) during that span. The stretch has also included Baez homering in three straight games from June 21 through June 24. What’s more, the shortstop has multi-hit efforts in four of his last seven contests.

If this is the start of the 29-year-old turning things around, he’s certainly someone you’ll want on your team for the stretch run. Baez has reached double digits in home runs and stolen bases in each of his previous five full seasons. Furthermore, he’s hit at least 29 home runs in each of his last three full campaigns, including in 2021 when he logged 31 home runs and 18 stolen bases.

While it remains to be seen if he’ll hit those specific numbers, a turnaround is certainly due at this point and not all surprising. Baez is sporting a .259 BABIP that’s well below his career .329 BABIP and the BABIP metrics he logged in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021, all of which were in the .340 to .355 range.

While the shortstop’s 34.7% hard-hit rate is below what we’ve come to expect and see from Baez, his barrel rate (9%) is still reasonably productive and promising sign where his power is concerned. It is worth noting that Baez has a 39% hard-hit rate and an 11.9% barrel rate during his recent run of quality results this month.

Wright has enjoyed a breakout season so far. The 26-year-old is sporting a 3.18 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, 92 strikeouts, and 27 walks in 85 innings spanning 14 starts entering play on Wednesday. It has been a significant development for the right-hander, who previously owned an identical 6.56 ERA and a 6.56 FIP in 70 career Major League innings.

If the manager in your league is concerned about Wright after his last two starts and thinks the breakout was in any way fluky, now’s the time to make a trade. Wright has surrendered 21 hits, nine earned runs, a home run, and two walks in his last 11.1 innings, spread over his last two starts in outings against the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants. Outside of a May 10 start against the New York Mets, they’ve been the only starts this season in which Wright has given up more than three runs.

This is more of a blip on the radar than anything resembling reverting to his pre-2022 form for Wright, who has allowed one or no runs in six of his 14 outings this year. The right-hander has also rattled off eight wins in those 14 starts, tied for the second-most in the league. He should continue to be as good of a bet for wins as any starting pitcher for the rest of the season, pitching for an Atlanta team with the league-sixth highest-scoring offense and in an Atlanta rotation with the fourth-most pitcher wins in baseball.

Staying in Atlanta with Wright’s teammate, Riley has been elite from a quality of contact standpoint, ranking in the 88th percentile or better in xwOBA (88th), barrel rate (94th), xSLG (93rd), max exit velocity (96th), average exit velocity (97th) and hard-hit rate (97th).

Those numbers have certainly translated in the power department. Only four full-time infielders, and nine players overall, have hit more home runs than Riley, who has 18. Where it hasn’t shown up as much is in the batting average department. Riley’s .253 average is down significantly from last season from last season’s .303 metric.

Part of that might have to do with the infielder’s BABIP, which has dropped as well from .368 last year to .298 this season. Overall though, a rebound could certainly be on the horizon where the average is concerned. The 25-year-old’s chase rate and zone contact metrics are nearly identical from last season to this current one. Pair those with significantly improved hard-hit and barrel rates and you have the recipe for a league-winning player.

Austin Riley in 2021: 78.9% Zone Contact%, 31% Chase Rate, 45.6% Hard-Hit Rate, 13.3% Barrel Rate

Austin Riley in 2022: 78.9% Zone Contact%, 31.6% Chase Rate, 53.8% Hard-Hit Rate, 15.6% Barrel Rate

While he may not be a significant stolen base threat, Riley should once again be one of fantasy baseball’s hitters down the stretch.

Saves are hard to come by in fantasy, which could make trading someone like Bard, who has 15 saves in 28 appearances this season, a difficult proposition if he’s on your roster. You might not want to deal the saves, but it’s possible someone in your league might be willing to overpay for them – or at the very least trade away an established fantasy contributor at another position.

If that’s the case, Bard should certainly be someone you should consider moving, and it’s not just because of the scarcity of saves either. Bard has pitched to a 2.12 ERA and a 3.54 FIP in 29.2 innings with 10.92 punchouts per nine frames and a rather unideal 3.94 walks per nine innings. If the chasm between the ERA and FIP wasn’t enough, Bard is also sitting on a .185 BABIP.

He also pitches at Coors Field in half of his outings, which is also unideal for fantasy purposes. In 17 innings at home, Bard owns a 2.65 ERA and a 3.61 FIP, but also a .237 BABIP. He’s been solid at home so far, but it’s obviously not a pitcher-friendly park. One bad outing could sink his ERA and potentially tank his perceived fantasy trade value.

Another potential factor in tanking Bard’s fantasy trade value, perceived or otherwise, is a potential mid-season deal. Bard is pitching for the same Rockies team that is mired at the bottom of the National League West and nine games out of the National League Wild Card race. A July trade to a contender where he’ll pitch the seventh or eighth innings isn’t going to help his fantasy value. In fact, it’s probably going to hurt it, even in saves+holds leagues.

Now’s the time to capitalize on Bard’s status and effectiveness as Colorado’s closer in a trade.

Look away fantasy managers who currently roster Clay Holmes.

MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweeted the following on June 25: “Aroldis Chapman will appear for @SOMPatriots again tomorrow, then could be activated, Aaron Boone said. He will return to the ninth inning. #Yankees.”

Then, in a June 27 article by Brian Heyman in Newsday, Boone was quoted as saying:

“Clay certainly earned that closer role ... although there has been nights, I don’t know if we’ve done it since Chappy’s been down, but there’s been many a night where he could’ve been in there in the eighth inning just based on the matchups and I would’ve closed with Wandy [Peralta] or whoever was available. … So those things have been in play already. … The biggest thing is I want to get Chappy in a good place deliver-wise and throwing the ball like he’s capable of. If we get that, then we’ve got another back-end monster to mix in.”

While Holmes could certainly regain the role outright if Chapman’s pre-injury struggles return to the forefront, this looks like a bullpen situation – purely based on that comment – similar to those in Seattle and Minnesota with multiple ninth-inning options logging saves. The Yankees have the best record and the most wins in baseball so far, so perhaps both relievers will be able to stay fantasy-relevant, but the reality is that Holmes might not be fantasy’s best closer as he arguably was when Chapman was sidelined.

Now might be the time to trade him, even if he does stay in the saves mix. That fact, combined with Chapman’s 4.98 FIP in 14 innings this season, could help you get an impact hitter or starting pitcher in return. I’d try moving Holmes in a two-for-two deal to try and significantly upgrade your lineup. Something like Holmes and Austin Hays for George Springer and Tanner Scott or Paul Sewald. That way you’re getting a better hitter while retaining a source of saves.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!

More Fantasy Baseball Advice Bubba and Bat Flip 132 - Week 19 FAAB Recap - Benched with Bubba (Episode 497) Starts & Sits for MLB Week 18 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball Bobby Miller: MLB Prospects Dynasty Pitcher Analysis for Fantasy Baseball MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts Two-Start Pitcher Streamers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 19 DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (8/12/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups Closers and Saves Waiver Wire Report for Fantasy Baseball - Week 18 Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 12: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (8/12/22) Breakout Hitters for Fantasy Baseball - MLB Batters Rising for Week 18

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by Bat Flip Crazy (@BatFlipCrazy). In tonight's episode, the guys will recap the Week 19 NFBC FAAB and ask a lot of listener questions. Be sure to subscribe to the Benched With Bubba Podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and... Read More

Welcome back RotoBallers! We are just a few days in after the All Star break, and we'll have a loaded week of games coming up. As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar,... Read More

Welcome back RotoBallers to my deep dive on Bobby Miller. In this Dynasty Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Prospects series, I will focus on key pitching fundamentals as quantified by my FaBIO (Fielding and Ballpark Independent Outcomes) evaluation system (my RotoBaller debut article more fully explains the FaBIO methodology). Every plate appearance is sorted into one of... Read More

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More

What's up what's up! It's Jon Anderson filling in this week to recommend some two-start streaming options for Week 19 of the fantasy baseball season. Week 19!? Holy cow, the season is flying by. This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming... Read More

It's another jammed-packed Friday full of MLB action with 13 games on the main slate and I'm ready to help you win some money playing MLB DFS. But baseball isn't just something I enjoy writing about or gambling on, it's a part of my childhood and a game that I watched and played for many... Read More

The trade deadline dust has settled, and we're still not over it here at RotoBaller. Those were some wild days leading up to what was a really wild Tuesday! Bullpens across the league were affected, and while some of the changes were obvious, others were a little less clear and needed time to sort themselves... Read More

A short slate of games won't stop us from wagering on them! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything! Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are... Read More

Happy Friday, RotoBallers, and happy birthday to me! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock... Read More

Welcome back to another edition of my "Breakout Hitters To Watch" series. What we're doing here is taking a good, close look at the hitting data each week to see which hitters are standing out the most. At times this year, I have gone away from the "breakout" term to just highlight hitters that have... Read More

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in... Read More

The trade deadline has passed, which has made implications in the prospects rankings list this week. Some prospects got moved, creating a new paradigm for them. Some veterans I was thinking would get moved to open up a spot for a prospect to come up did not get moved. Check out all of the happenings... Read More

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 MLB All-Star Break has officially ended and we here at RotoBaller are ready to kick off the second half of the season with some terrific plays with our friends over at PrizePicks. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of... Read More

Joey and Dave reveal their must-have quarterbacks for 2022 fantasy football drafts - players who are potential league-winners. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM... Read More

Joey and Dave reveal their must-have tight ends for 2022 fantasy football drafts - players who are potential league-winners. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210,... Read More

While you may feel like a bigger degenerate betting on the preseason than Clark Griswold at a Las Vegas casino, here is this week's DFS article for Week 1 of the NFL preseason because you and I both know that you're jonesing for some NFL DFS action. While it can be more difficult to project... Read More

After missing all of last season with a torn meniscus, Minnesota Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. suffered another setback earlier this month when he had thumb surgery. While Smith is a talented player, availability has become a definite issue for him. Will the Vikings have Irv Smith Jr. back for Week 1?Editor's Note: Our... Read More

Joey and Dave reveal their must-have wide receivers for 2022 fantasy football drafts - players who are potential league-winners. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210,... Read More

The Washington Commanders used their first-round pick (No. 16 overall) in the 2022 NFL draft to select Penn State wide receiver Jahan Dotson. Dotson stands 5'11" and weighs 183 pounds and will team with Terry McLaurin to give new Washington quarterback Carson Wentz two talented receivers to target. Dotson was the RotoBaller consensus rookie WR8... Read More

Adjusting to the speed and the rigors of the NFL can be tough, and not every player will do it effectively as a rookie. And that's okay! Plenty of players struggle in their first year but then breakout later. But not every player. Some struggle as rookies and then follow that up with more struggles.... Read More

Below you will find our updated fantasy football injuries report for running backs in the 2022 NFL preseason as of Friday August 12th. The injury statuses for various NFL running backs are up in the air during training camp, including Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, James Robinson, and Kenneth Gainwell. With peak draft... Read More

Arizona running back James Conner is currently being drafted as the RB16 in the third round of PPR redraft leagues. This price is certainly understandable. Conner finished as the RB5 last year, racking up 18 total touchdowns in the process. He also demonstrated his ability as a pass-catcher with 37 receptions on 39 targets. These... Read More

Today I'm here to discuss some quarterback fantasy football sleepers and value picks. Identifying undervalued players in the late rounds of fantasy football drafts is one of the best ways to give you a better shot of winning your fantasy leagues year in and year out. This is especially true with the quarterback position, as... Read More

There are so many different fantasy football draft strategies nowadays, but no other strategy comes with as much scrutiny and judgment as the zero-running back strategy. For the longest time, the running back position was widely accepted as the most important position in fantasy football. For some, that’s still very much the case. However, with... Read More

Tight end is a fun position in fantasy football. There's a clear top group of tight ends, headlined by Travis Kelce. The top-five tight ends all count as "must-have" tight ends because of positional scarcity, but it's boring to suggest you draft the following names: Kelse, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, and Darren Waller.... Read More

There's no "best" way to win in fantasy football, but there are some good ways, and one of those good ways is to draft good players in the late rounds. Sounds easy, right? Not really! How many times have you spent a 14th-round pick on a player and then dropped him after Week 2 because... Read More